The world is facing a serious threat in the form of Global Warming. Since the commencement of Industrial Revolution, the temperatures across the globe are rising. In order to put a check on the increasing temperatures, the Global Community charted Paris Agreement. The main motto of this agreement is to bring all nations on a common platform with the aim to combat climate change and adapt to its effects. The Agreement suggested that a global temperature rise this century should be kept well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and further push should be given to keep it to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
A recently published research has stated the impact of keeping global warming to 1.5°C instead of 2°C. The research conducted by a group of Goethe University Frankfurt reveals that if the temperature rises by 2°C then the flood hazards will enhance significantly over an average of 21 percent of the global land area. The research team has conducted a simulation based on global hydrological models. As the Paris Agreement has suggested keeping global average temperatures to 2°C and to well below 1.5°C if possible. In order understand how these temperatures cap would affect the globe, the Federal Ministry of Education and Research conducted a study which suggests how capping global average temperatures well below 1.5°C affect the globe.
Professor Petra Döll from the Department of Physical Geography at Goethe University Frankfurt, in the research, discovered that countries with a low or lower middle income would gain most if global warming is restricted to 1.5°C. He further explained this as the increase in flood risk in those countries would remain far lower than at 2°C.
Another published literature has suggested that it is expected that Europe will witness an increase in flood risk in coming years. It further stated that it is predicted even under an optimistic climate change scenario of 1.5°C warming. The study was conducted to find out the impact on Central and Western Europe of 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C warming. It was found that these areas will experience a substantial increase in flood risk at all warming levels. It is also suggested that the higher the warming, the higher would be the risk. The study also projected that Europe will experience more than double of the damage from floods. The scenario suggested that average damage would be 113% in case if warming is kept to 1.5°C and would be 145% under the 3°C scenario.
The main objective to conduct this study was to analyze differences in projected changes in flood risk under global warming scenarios of 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees from pre-industrial levels. The scientists wanted to identify consistent and model-independent trends of the flood in Europe which would happen due to climate change. They also wanted to identify the reasons for the differences and similarities among projections of river flood risk.